Cross-Branch Comparison
cache age 352h 8mFor a single prediction, see its conditional probability across every scenario branch. Predictions whose probability varies widely are "scenario-sensitive" — the position is a leveraged bet on which future fires. Flat rows = robust to scenario uncertainty.
Pick a prediction
High-conviction (≥4) predictions with ≥2 ticker exposures
239_005
AI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degree
AI · Elon Musk · conv 5/5 · resolves 2027-09
live posterior: 36% (prior 50%)
Scenario range
0.0pp
31% to 31% across 4 scenarios
cache 37 rows · 2026-05-24 04:31 UTC
cf:e20a3cc6aed2
$1T+ IPO
mutually exclusive — exactly one branch fires · range 0.0pp
| Scenario | Scenario prob | P(239_005 | scenario) | Δ live |
|---|---|---|---|
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | 25% | 31% | -5pp |
S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | 40% | 31% | -5pp |
S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | 25% | 31% | -5pp |
S_IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Y No $1T+ IPO through 2031 | 10% | 31% | -5pp |
What this tells you
- High sensitivity (≥30pp range): this claim's probability swings wildly depending on which future fires. Sizing should be smaller; pair with a hedge that has the opposite sensitivity profile.
- Flat row (≤10pp range): the claim is robust — same probability in good and bad scenarios. A "no-regret" position; you don't need to time the underlying scenario.
- Spike on one branch: a leveraged thesis on a specific scenario. If that scenario's prior shifts, this position re-rates massively.