Cross-Branch Comparison
cache age 351h 58mFor a single prediction, see its conditional probability across every scenario branch. Predictions whose probability varies widely are "scenario-sensitive" — the position is a leveraged bet on which future fires. Flat rows = robust to scenario uncertainty.
Pick a prediction
High-conviction (≥4) predictions with ≥2 ticker exposures
229_002
Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.
Robotics · Brett Adcock · conv 5/5 · resolves 2026-09
live posterior: 56% (prior 92%)
Scenario range
1.2pp
61% to 62% across 4 scenarios
cache 37 rows · 2026-05-24 04:31 UTC
cf:e20a3cc6aed2
Humanoid deployment
cumulative — branches can co-occur · range 1.2pp
| Scenario | Scenario prob | P(229_002 | scenario) | Δ live |
|---|---|---|---|
S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | 40% | 61% | +5pp |
S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | 50% | 61% | +5pp |
S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | 20% | 62% | +6pp |
S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | 10% | 62% | +6pp |
What this tells you
- High sensitivity (≥30pp range): this claim's probability swings wildly depending on which future fires. Sizing should be smaller; pair with a hedge that has the opposite sensitivity profile.
- Flat row (≤10pp range): the claim is robust — same probability in good and bad scenarios. A "no-regret" position; you don't need to time the underlying scenario.
- Spike on one branch: a leveraged thesis on a specific scenario. If that scenario's prior shifts, this position re-rates massively.