Cross-Branch Comparison
cache age 346h 4mFor a single prediction, see its conditional probability across every scenario branch. Predictions whose probability varies widely are "scenario-sensitive" — the position is a leveraged bet on which future fires. Flat rows = robust to scenario uncertainty.
Pick a prediction
High-conviction (≥4) predictions with ≥2 ticker exposures
239_003
We are currently in AI hard takeoff
AI · Elon Musk · conv 5/5 · resolves 2026-09
live posterior: 47% (prior 60%)
Scenario range
0.0pp
50% to 50% across 3 scenarios
cache 37 rows · 2026-05-24 04:31 UTC
cf:e20a3cc6aed2
Energy / grid
cumulative — branches can co-occur · range 0.0pp
| Scenario | Scenario prob | P(239_003 | scenario) | Δ live |
|---|---|---|---|
S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | 40% | 50% | +3pp |
S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | 50% | 50% | +3pp |
S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031 | 10% | 50% | +3pp |
What this tells you
- High sensitivity (≥30pp range): this claim's probability swings wildly depending on which future fires. Sizing should be smaller; pair with a hedge that has the opposite sensitivity profile.
- Flat row (≤10pp range): the claim is robust — same probability in good and bad scenarios. A "no-regret" position; you don't need to time the underlying scenario.
- Spike on one branch: a leveraged thesis on a specific scenario. If that scenario's prior shifts, this position re-rates massively.