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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.67 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | |
| 0.67 | Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | |
| 0.67 | will i get a medal at the IPO 2026?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.67 | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.67 | 30T market cap company before 2027?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.67 | Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.67 | Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.67 | Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-03 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.67 | Will I make USAMO in 2027(market prob: 37%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-08 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.67 | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.67 | Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.67 | Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.67 | Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.67 | Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.67 | Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 239_020 AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do Elon Musk | AI | 23% | |
| 0.67 | Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.67 | Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 33% | |
| 0.67 | Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.67 | Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.67 | Will 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.67 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.66 | Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 243_043 Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 51% | |
| 0.66 | Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.66 | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_006 Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 45% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-05 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.66 | If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.66 | Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.66 | Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-11 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 235_044 AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-17 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Apple mention Anthropic or Claude in its WWDC 2026 keynote?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.66 | Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.66 | Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.66 | Will the OSN-K 2026 announcement be on time?(market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 56% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Berkshire Hathaway buy back shares in q2 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.66 | Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-28 | INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 30% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.66 | Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | AI_007 Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processes the entirety of human knowledge, and human cognition begins to merge with machine intelligence via biological nanobots. Ray Kurzweil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.66 | Will Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before July 2026?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.66 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% |