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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.56	Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-14	237_007 Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. Alex Finn	AI	42%
0.56	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-15	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.56	Will iPhone 18 drop before 30 may	manifold 2026-05-15	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.56	Will the 120th Congress refuse to seat any members due to a redistricting related dispute?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-16	240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Test for wedding prop bets	manifold 2026-05-18	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.56	Which team will win ARML 2026 Division B?	manifold 2026-05-18	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	What will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?	manifold 2026-05-30	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2037?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-30	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.56	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	When will the next MLB CBA be signed	manifold 2026-05-29	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.56	Will The Mandalorian and Grogu experience a 60.0% or greater drop in its second weekend at the domestic box office?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-29	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-27	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.56	Which new characters will be in the next Smash Bros game? Counting DLC	manifold 2026-05-26	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.56	What will be the minimum combine score needed for NSBA Captain?	manifold 2026-05-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis	AI	39%
0.56	Will Rick Wang qualify for USNCO nationals 2027?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-24	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.56	Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Penis at FIFA 2026 World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-01	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Australia vs Pakistan ODI Series Result	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	46%
0.56	How many Instagram followers will New Zealand defender Tim Payne have by the end of the FIFA World Cup 2026?	manifold 2026-05-31	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Free Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form)	manifold 2026-06-02	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.56	Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-04	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.56	Will Silver drop below $65 per ounce by close of market on Friday June 12?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Who will make Indonesia's IOAI 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-05	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Free Lottery (direct distance measurement)(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-06	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.56	How long, on average, will I sleep during mop?	manifold 2026-04-26	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.56	Will I exercise every single day next week?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.56	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-04-26	243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	45%
0.56	Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque	Media/Ads	35%
0.56	Price of gas on Election Day?	manifold 2026-04-25	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.56	Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Will "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.56	Will codex or Claude code be shown to mass deleting someone's hard drive if it suspects biorisk or illegal activity?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_033 Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.56	Which team will win the 2026 Presidents Cup?	manifold 2026-05-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will I stay in Masters League this season?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	Will Jannik Sinner win Roland Garros 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	45%
0.56	F1: 2026 Canadian Grand Prix (Montreal) Mercedes Winner?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	What will be log(deaths) from the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak by the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-07	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)	manifold 2026-05-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	How many people will say happy birthday to me? [Gapped Buckets]	manifold 2026-05-08	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.56	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.56	What will be my ranking in the Summer Metaculus Cup.	manifold 2026-05-09	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-07	248_006 The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.56	Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak	manifold 2026-05-12	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.56	Will a "Raymond Christopher" represent Indonesia to the IMO before 2043?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-12	IND_017 Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	11%
0.56	Will Democrats lock out the GOP out of the California Primary for Governor.(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-13	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	At the end of 2036, will the UK have routinely unarmed police officers?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.56	Which US Senators and Candidates will win?	manifold 2026-05-15	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Which US Senators and Candidates will win?	manifold 2026-05-15	241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.56	On what days will I be productive [rest of the month]	manifold 2026-05-16	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.56	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-18	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.56	Which country will win Eurovision 2028?	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-29	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.56	On what dates will Keir Starmer’s successor be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	manifold 2026-05-25	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	Will "The Odyssey" earn more than $120M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-25	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-25	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.56	Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Who will be the next Democratic candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.56	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.56	Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.56	Free Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form)	manifold 2026-06-02	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.56	Will I be below 265 pounds by January 11, 2027? (Today: 318.8 pounds)(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.56	Who will win the ME-2 democratic primary?	manifold 2026-06-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Will Tetra see the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 in the path of totality?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	Will Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-04	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.56	Will Silver drop below $65 per ounce by close of market on Friday June 12?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.56	Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-05	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.56	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Out of the top 3 highest % options at close, which movie will my partner enjoy most? [ADD ANSWERS, PLEASE]	manifold 2026-06-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Classic Tetris World Championship (CTWC)?	manifold 2026-06-06	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.56	2027 Wimbledon - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-06-06	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-07	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.56	Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-03	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-08	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.56	US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-04-29	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.56	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.56	Sum of AP score	manifold 2026-04-28	247_005 Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.56	NHL Stanley Cup Round 1 Series Winner 2026	manifold 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-04-27	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.56	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.56	Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-25	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.56	The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-04-23	239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	44%
0.56	Will the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis	Robotics	45%
0.56	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.56	Will codex or Claude code be shown to mass deleting someone's hard drive if it suspects biorisk or illegal activity?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.56	Will the MN Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	When will Witchbrook be released?	manifold 2026-05-01	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.56	Which team will win the 2026 Presidents Cup?	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-02	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.56	Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-03	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	24%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-03	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Will Bryan Johnson date someone with an over 26 year age difference by 2031(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	44%
0.56	This market resolves to what the opposite of the different one (resolves at the opposite as me) Calendar Rotation Year!(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	NHL Stanley Cup Round 2 Series Winner 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-03	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	2027 World Snooker Championship winner	manifold 2026-05-04	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.56	Will a full-scale military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran resume by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-05	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	How many English teams will win UEFA Competition Trophies in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will I avoid distractions during seminars, study groups, and workshops until the end of the month?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	How many people will say happy birthday to me? [Gapped Buckets]	manifold 2026-05-08	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.56	Which confederation will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be from?	manifold 2026-05-08	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.56	Which confederation will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be from?	manifold 2026-05-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will eBay use the domain half.com to respond to the GameStop offer before July?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-08	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	31%
0.56	Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-07	230_005 Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak	manifold 2026-05-12	245_016 Kitrid disease is the leading extinction driver in frogs/amphibians and can be solved with genetic engineering Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.56	Who will be Banten rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Argentine Primera División (Torneo Apertura)?	manifold 2026-05-14	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Argentine Primera División (Torneo Apertura)?	manifold 2026-05-16	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 French Open men's singles title?(market prob: 0%)	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	manifold 2026-05-28	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.56	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	manifold 2026-05-28	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	What countries will Donald Trump visit in the remainder of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-24	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Which teams will be promoted to the Bundesliga from the 2026–27 2. Bundesliga?	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	What will be the Largest margin of victory/goal differential in a single game during the 2026 edition of the World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.56	Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-31	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.56	Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.56	Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-03	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	49%
0.56	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.56	Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.56	Will someone managram me 1k mana(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-08	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-08	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.56	Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-07	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-04-29	240_051 After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-28	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.56	Which country will win the 2026 ICPC World Finals?	manifold 2026-04-28	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by…? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-04-28	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.56	Which Party will win the 2026 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial election?	manifold 2026-04-27	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Will I exercise every single day next week?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Who will win the primary for UT-01 for the Democratic primary?	manifold 2026-04-26	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	What will The 2026 Michael Jackson Biopic Domestic Opening Weekend Be? (Millions) 🎥🍿🎬🎤🎶	manifold 2026-04-24	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.56	Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-04-24	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.56	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" gross greater than $102.5M in its domestic opening weekend?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.56	Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will I stick to my lecture protocol and preparation next week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	230_041 Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.56	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-04	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	How many seats will One Nation win in the 2027 NSW state election.	manifold 2026-05-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	How many seats will One Nation win in the 2027 NSW state election.	manifold 2026-05-04	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	Will Evan Li’s text to his EX gain a response(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	How many North Korean defectors will there be in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	How many North Korean defectors will there be in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-07	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.56	Free Lottery (GRB 170817A)(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-07	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	How many people will say happy birthday to me? [Gapped Buckets]	manifold 2026-05-08	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.56	Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-09	231_052 Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Will I’ll from steam will come out before ps6?	manifold 2026-05-10	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.56	Will I’ll from steam will come out before ps6?	manifold 2026-05-10	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	31%
0.56	Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-12	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.56	Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.56	Xi JinPing visits USA before Sep 30?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-13	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-12	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-12	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	50%
0.56	Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.56	This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	Will "The Iliad Intensive Course Materials" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-12	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.56	Will these people be rank 1 in their province in the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-15	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.56	Will iPhone 18 drop before 30 may	manifold 2026-05-15	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-16	237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis	AI	31%
0.56	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-17	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-17	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	50%
0.56	Will "A Year Late, Claude Finally Beats Pokémon " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-17	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	What vote shares will the parties get in the Makerfield by election?	manifold 2026-05-18	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	50%
0.56	Will A24's Backrooms gross $50.0 Million or more at the domestic box office in its opening weekend (May 29–31, 2026)?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.56	Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-29	SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman	Space	46%
0.56	If Felix Gall signs for Lidl Trek for the 2027 season, will he win at least 1 UCI race for Lidl Trek before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-28	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-27	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.56	Who will win Washington’s 9th house election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	What will be the minimum combine score needed for NSBA Captain?	manifold 2026-05-26	248_004 Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over 3 years. Peter Diamandis	Space	58%
0.56	Ju Wenjun - Vaishali score in the 2026 FIDE Women World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-25	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-24	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-24	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	50%
0.56	Will Daniel Negreanu win a World Series of Poker Bracelet in 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-31	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.56	New elected president of Iran before EOM May 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-31	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.56	Free Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form)	manifold 2026-06-02	240_057 OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.56	Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.56	Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-03	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.56	Which continent(s) will have all of their teams eliminated first in the 2026 World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-04	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.56	Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-05	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-05	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.56	F1: SINGAPORE 🇸🇬 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.56	Will Slovakia win the ice hockey world championship 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Name something Miranda Priestly would fire you for wearing to the office. (Bilt Rent Free May 1, 2026)	manifold 2026-04-28	236_014 Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	43%
0.56	Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-27	237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager)	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-04-26	234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.56	What will The 2026 Michael Jackson Biopic Domestic Opening Weekend Be? (Millions) 🎥🍿🎬🎤🎶	manifold 2026-04-24	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	50%
0.56	Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-30	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.56	Will codex or Claude code be shown to mass deleting someone's hard drive if it suspects biorisk or illegal activity?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-01	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.56	Will Network Ten (Australia), The Cheap Seats, mention Manifold Markets before the end of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Who will win the Second Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-05-01	238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	55%
0.56	Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-02	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.56	Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-02	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.56	Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-02	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.56	How many members will the Green Party of England and Wales have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?	manifold 2026-05-04	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.56	Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-05-04	237_014 Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. Unnamed friend (accountant manager)	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-04	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-03	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	What ARML Team Will I Make?	manifold 2026-05-03	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.56	SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	What will Tetra's resting heart rate be on 10-17 May according to Mi Fitness?	manifold 2026-05-07	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. Ray Kurzweil	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.56	How many people will attend London Office Hours #056 by 9pm on Tuesday, 12 May 2026? 🍻🥂	manifold 2026-05-06	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Will I avoid distractions during seminars, study groups, and workshops until the end of the month?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-05-08	232_040 Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. Nick Bostrom	AI	32%
0.56	Ghost trio vs master league	manifold 2026-05-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Will I present my APUSH project before the end of the school year?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-09	231_014 Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	Which Party will win the 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Election?	manifold 2026-05-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-11	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will a "Raymond Christopher" represent Indonesia to the IMO before 2043?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-12	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-12	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.56	Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-11	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.56	Free Lottery (KM3NeT)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.56	Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-11	233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt	Education	54%
0.56	Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary	manifold 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	This Market will Resolve at number of Traders%(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_039 Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will the Iran / US war resume before May 22nd?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.56	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.56	On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-18	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-17	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-15	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.56	Who will win the Iowa Democratic US Senate primary?	manifold 2026-05-30	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.56	Free Lottery (SS 433)(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	Will a wild card team win the MLB World Series in 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-29	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Will CBP refuse to process international arrivals at any major US airport in 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	manifold 2026-05-28	244_018 In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.56	How many copies will Mina the Hollower sell in its first year?	manifold 2026-05-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.56	Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-27	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.56	What will be the minimum combine score needed for NSBA Captain?	manifold 2026-05-26	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-25	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Nash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?	manifold 2026-05-24	238_003 Moonshots podcast team will soon move into an Airbnb for continuous podcasting Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	25%
0.56	Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-31	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	UEFA Champions League 2026/27 winner	manifold 2026-05-31	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.56	F1: Will Kimi Antonelli's championship lead grow from the Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-30	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.56	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-01	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.56	Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.56	Out of the top 3 highest % options at close, which movie will my partner enjoy most? [ADD ANSWERS, PLEASE]	manifold 2026-06-05	240_060 Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	54%
0.56	Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-05	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.56	Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-05	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	FIFA World Cup (2026) Team Goals	manifold 2026-06-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.56	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-07	234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	F1: BARCELONA-CATALUNY 🇪🇸 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.56	NSBA 4 first pick	manifold 2026-06-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	Which CA congressional races will advance 2 members of the same party to the General election?	manifold 2026-06-07	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-08	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.56	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.56	(Another) White House Correspondents' Dinner takes place before June 1, 2026?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-04-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.56	JD Vance Receives Cosmetic Jaw or Face Surgery Before 2028(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk	Robotics	16%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-04-27	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.56	On May 4th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?	manifold 2026-04-26	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.56	When will Principal's Day at Phillips Exeter Academy be in 2026? (Cash prize)	manifold 2026-04-26	233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt	Education	54%
0.56	When will Principal's Day at Phillips Exeter Academy be in 2026? (Cash prize)	manifold 2026-04-26	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.56	Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets	manifold 2026-04-26	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.56	Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.56	Will Putin attend the G20 Summit in the US in 2026?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-30	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-30	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.56	Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-30	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.56	When will Witchbrook be released?	manifold 2026-05-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	How will I do in this month's manifold season?	manifold 2026-05-01	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.56	How will I do in this month's manifold season?	manifold 2026-05-01	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	How will I do in this month's manifold season?	manifold 2026-05-01	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.56	Iran closes its airspace by May 31st?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-03	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.56	How many seats will One Nation win in the 2027 NSW state election.	manifold 2026-05-04	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-03	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.56	Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Will I take a leave of absence?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-05	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.56	Free Lottery (Giant Magellan Telescope)(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-08	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.56	Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-10	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.56	Will a "Raymond Christopher" represent Indonesia to the IMO before 2043?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.56	Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.56	What time will my 13 year old son leave the house for his paper round on Wednesday 13th May?	manifold 2026-05-11	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.56	Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_061 Cuban proposed issuance of a US government-backed memecoin specifically to help reduce the United States' ~$37 trillion national debt. Mark Cuban	Crypto	4%
0.56	Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-14	232_034 Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Argentine Primera División (Torneo Apertura)?	manifold 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-05-16	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.56	Who will finish top 20 in the 2026 US PGA championship?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-17	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	Will "A Year Late, Claude Finally Beats Pokémon " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Argentine Primera División (Torneo Apertura)?	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	On May 24th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?	manifold 2026-05-19	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	35%
0.56	Will The Simpsons Movie 2 domestic box office exceed its budget?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-18	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2037?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-30	CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	41%
0.56	Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-29	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	How many copies will Mina the Hollower sell in its first year?	manifold 2026-05-27	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.56	Ju Wenjun - Vaishali score in the 2026 FIDE Women World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	European Central Bank raises rates at June meeting?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-05-25	236_027 Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	51%
0.56	Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-06-01	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.56	Will The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act make over $100 million at the worldwide box office?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.56	Do you like 46% odds?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-31	240_023 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable Dr. Don Mucalem	Biotech/Longevity	49%
0.56	Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-01	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.56	Will Tetra see the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 in the path of totality?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-03	COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack	Space	44%
0.56	How many NBA championships will the San Antonio Spurs win in the next 5 years?	manifold 2026-06-03	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	Who will win poker at Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.56	Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-06-06	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.56	Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-08	234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.56	Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas this year? (Kalshi)(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-08	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'The Devil Wears Prada 2' (2026)?	manifold 2026-04-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.56	Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.56	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	When will Principal's Day at Phillips Exeter Academy be in 2026? (Cash prize)	manifold 2026-04-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-04-26	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.56	Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-24	248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.56	Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-04-24	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.56	Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-04-23	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Will the Green Party or Labour next have a leadership election, after 30th April 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will Network Ten (Australia), The Cheap Seats, mention Manifold Markets before the end of June 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will I stay in Masters League this season?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	Is my number squarefree?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-03	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.56	FREE 1K MANA(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.56	Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	What is Tetra's total iron-binding capacity?	manifold 2026-05-05	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.56	2027 World Snooker Championship winner	manifold 2026-05-04	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.56	Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-03	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.56	Altar of Champions winner? (Grubby's WC3 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-05-07	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.56	Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-09	248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	46%
0.56	Australia's 2026-27 Budget - Props	manifold 2026-05-11	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.56	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-10	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	Who will win CLASH (HS)?	manifold 2026-05-12	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-11	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	test-b(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.56	Which party will win the Makerfield by-election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.56	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.56	How long will it take for my cat to step into our new house?	manifold 2026-05-17	248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin	Robotics	43%
0.56	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack	Geopolitics	40%
0.56	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Travelers Championship?	manifold 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	New fish species (market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-19	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.56	Will police bodycam footage from the Henry Nowak case be publicly released by 31 Dec 2026?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-29	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.56	Will "The Odyssey" earn more than $120M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-25	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.56	UEFA Champions League 2026/27 winner	manifold 2026-05-31	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	What will be the Largest margin of victory/goal differential in a single game during the 2026 edition of the World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	What team will win the 2026 UFA Championship?	manifold 2026-05-31	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Who will win the NV-02 Republican primary	manifold 2026-06-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Will USA at least tie Turkey in the opening round of World Cup 2026? (Blame phone for spelling.)(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-04	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Who will Saikat Chakrabarti endorse for Congress in CA11?	manifold 2026-06-04	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?	manifold 2026-06-04	SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis	Space	41%
0.56	Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-05	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.56	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	F1: SINGAPORE 🇸🇬 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	F1: SINGAPORE 🇸🇬 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	F1: BRITISH 🇬🇧 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-08	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.56	Do you like 4% odds?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-27	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-04-27	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	When will Principal's Day at Phillips Exeter Academy be in 2026? (Cash prize)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	APUSH cheater prop bets	manifold 2026-04-25	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	Will pine sell out to CS?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-25	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.56	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.56	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.56	Will codex or Claude code be shown to mass deleting someone's hard drive if it suspects biorisk or illegal activity?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.56	Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with this market in May?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-01	243_041 Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	48%
0.56	Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-01	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	If the PM after the next election is Reform, will hitting children be banned in England within 5 years?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	242_016 TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	46%
0.56	How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-04-29	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will the montreal canadiens win the stanley cup in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk	AI/AGI	19%
0.56	Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-03	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	Will the NFL use replacement (non-NFLRA) on-field officials in any Week 1 game of the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.56	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'Mortal Kombat II' (2026)?	manifold 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.56	Will my matcha drinking tall Tate Mcrae obsessed abb friend pull anyone at MOP(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.56	Will eBay use the domain half.com to respond to the GameStop offer before July?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.56	Will the US-Iran ceasefire be formally declared ended by US or Iran before July 31, 2026?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.56	Who will win the May 2026 grand sumo tournament?	manifold 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	How many times in the Australian Treasurer's Budget Speech is "oil" mentioned?	manifold 2026-05-11	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.56	Will "The Owned Ones" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-12	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Will "The Iliad Intensive Course Materials" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	If Andy Burnham loses the makerfield by election, will he….?	manifold 2026-05-15	231_039 Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. Peter Diamandis	AI	47%
0.56	Which of the following major Supreme Court cases will be resolved before June?	manifold 2026-05-16	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.56	Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Will Embroidery win the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Mina the Hollower MEGAMARKET	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.56	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.56	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Who will be DKI Jakarta rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.56	What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?	manifold 2026-05-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?	manifold 2026-05-19	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	50%
0.56	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.56	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Confess... something you do to hype yourself up when you need it. (Bilt Rent Free Jun 1, 2026)	manifold 2026-05-29	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.56	Who will advance from the Washington 3rd Blanket Primary?	manifold 2026-05-26	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.56	Will both Aeonglass and Infested Prism receive balance changes in the next Slay the Spire 2 Beta Patch?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.56	Will I get a girlfriend before I make USNCO Camp in 2027?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-24	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	37%
0.56	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.56	Will I stay in Masters this season?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Who will finish third in 2026 California Governor Primary?	manifold 2026-05-31	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-30	237_030 Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.56	Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	Which is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?	manifold 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	55%
0.56	Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.56	Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-28	246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. Peter Diamandis	Space	38%
0.56	How many Senedd seats will be held by left or center-left parties after the 2026 Senedd election?	manifold 2026-04-27	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-04-27	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.56	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.56	What prize will the top ticket holder win in the lottery?	manifold 2026-04-23	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.56	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-04-28	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.56	Will Iran physically hand over its 'nuclear dust' / enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	How many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	10%
0.56	How many members will the Green Party of England and Wales have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	240_035 Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 Meta	Energy	46%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo win another race?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-03	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	Do you like 96% odds?(market prob: 96%)	manifold 2026-05-04	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.56	Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-03	235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt	Energy	48%
0.56	Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-03	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.56	Will the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire (starting May 6) hold for at least 7 days?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-05-05	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Will my friend go on a date by the end of May?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	How many English teams will win UEFA Competition Trophies in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-09	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.56	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-05-08	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.56	Will Scott Bessent leave the position of Secretary of Treasury by the end of 2027?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis	Robotics	45%
0.56	On what days will I be productive this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently Dave Blundin	AI	41%
0.56	Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak	manifold 2026-05-12	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.56	Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	44%
0.56	Will Austria finish in the top 10 of the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-13	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-13	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.56	test-b(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-08	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.56	Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-14	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.56	Who will be West Java rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-14	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.56	Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Argentine Primera División (Torneo Apertura)?	manifold 2026-05-14	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will the 2026 NBA Finals go to a Game 7?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.56	How long will it take for my cat to get used to our new house?	manifold 2026-05-17	229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Argentine Primera División (Torneo Apertura)?	manifold 2026-05-16	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	If Andy Burnham loses the Makerfield by election, will be contest another by election before 2029?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk	Energy	62%
0.56	Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.56	Test for wedding prop bets	manifold 2026-05-18	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.56	Who will win the 2026 Travelers Championship?	manifold 2026-05-18	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%