Validations Queue

50,713 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 12 of 94, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

50,713

Reviewed

Filtered

46,826

page 12 / 94

Showing on page

500

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (50713)arxiv (18539)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (2201)fda (2670)gdelt (1218)github_release (2532)manifold (6345)polymarket (17074)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.67	PragLocker: Protecting Agent Intellectual Property in Untrusted Deployments via Non-Portable Prompts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Hybrid Quantum-Classical GANs for the Generation of Adversarial Network Flows	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Gaming the Metric, Not the Harm: Certifying Safety Audits against Strategic Platform Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.67	Bandit Learning in General Open Multi-agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	STALE: Can LLM Agents Know When Their Memories Are No Longer Valid?	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MiA-Signature: Approximating Global Activation for Long-Context Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Estimating the Black-box LLM Uncertainty with Distribution-Aligned Adversarial Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	XL-SafetyBench: A Country-Grounded Cross-Cultural Benchmark for LLM Safety and Cultural Sensitivity	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	Architecture Matters: Comparing RAG Systems under Knowledge Base Poisoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Architecture Matters: Comparing RAG Systems under Knowledge Base Poisoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	Counterargument for Critical Thinking as Judged by AI and Humans	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.67	Resource-Constrained Robotic Planning in the face of Mixed Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	ELVIS: Ensemble-Calibrated Latent Imagination for Long-Horizon Visual MPC	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-11	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-12	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Learning, Fast and Slow: Towards LLMs That Adapt Continually	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Search Your Block Floating Point Scales!	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	Why Conclusions Diverge from the Same Observations: Formalizing World-Model Non-Identifiability via an Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Scaling Laws and Tradeoffs in Recurrent Networks of Expressive Neurons	arxiv 2026-05-12	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	Procedural-skill SFT across capacity tiers: A W-Shaped pre-SFT Trajectory and Regime-Asymmetric Mechanism on 0.8B-4B Qwen3.5 Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Information theoretic underpinning of self-supervised learning by clustering	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	FIS-DiT: Breaking the Few-Step Video Inference Barrier via Training-Free Frame Interleaved Sparsity	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Entropy Polarity in Reinforcement Fine-Tuning: Direction, Asymmetry, and Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Evolutionary Task Discovery: Advancing Reasoning Frontiers via Skill Composition and Complexity Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Targeted Tests for LLM Reasoning: An Audit-Constrained Protocol	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-11	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Beyond Oversquashing: Understanding Signal Propagation in GNNs Via Observables	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Concurrency without Model Changes: Future-based Asynchronous Function Calling for LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	Intelligence Impact Quotient (IIQ): A Framework for Measuring Organizational AI Impact	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	ASH: Agents that Self-Hone via Embodied Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13](market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-15	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.67	Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13](market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-15	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.67	Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-17	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	A Readiness-Driven Runtime for Pipeline-Parallel Training under Runtime Variability	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	GIM: Evaluating models via tasks that integrate multiple cognitive domains	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	InfoFlow: A Framework for Multi-Layer Transformer Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	Sequential Structure in Intraday Futures Data: LSTM vs Gradient Boosting on MNQ	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Bug or Feature$^2$: Weight Drift, Activation Sparsity, and Spikes	arxiv 2026-05-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	LLMForge: Multi-Backend Hardware-Aware Neural Architecture Search with Infinite-Head Attention for Edge Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Trump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket](market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.67	Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-05-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Unlocking the Working Memory of Large Language Models for Latent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Token Inflation: How Dishonest Providers Can Overcharge for Large Language Model Usage	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	Honeyval: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for LLM-powered HTTP Honeypots	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.67	Make LLM Learn to Synthesize from Streaming Experiences through Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Singularity-aware Optimization via Randomized Geometric Probing: Towards Stable Non-smooth Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	How's it going? Reinforcement learning in language models recruits a functional welfare axis	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.67	Anti Mode-Collapse in Mean-Field Transformer via Auxiliary Variables	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rollouts	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_031 Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era Salim Ismail	Other	45%
0.67	On-Policy Replay for Continual Supervised Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	UniSteer: Text-Guided Flow Matching in Activation Space for Versatile LLM Steering	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	CONCAT: Consensus- and Confidence-Driven Ad Hoc Teaming for Efficient LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_003 Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.67	CONCAT: Consensus- and Confidence-Driven Ad Hoc Teaming for Efficient LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Offloading Score: Measuring AI Reliance Through Counterfactual Workflows	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.67	MARS Policy: Multimodality Only When It Matters	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Magic Relations and Critical Varieties of Feynman Integrals	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	3rd largest company end of August 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.67	Largest company end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.67	How many views will all plzdontkillus content receive in July?	manifold 2026-05-31	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.67	Do Multimodal Agents Really Benefit from Tool Use? A Systematic Study of Capability Gains	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	From Capability Models to Automated Planning: An AAS-Native Approach for Automatic PDDL Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Extreme Low-Bit Inference in Reasoning Models: Failure Modes and Targeted Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.67	SafeMCP: Proactive Power Regulation for LLM Agent Defense via Environment-Grounded Look-Ahead Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	RadioMaster: Multi-Agent System for Autonomous Radio Signal Generation	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.67	TabPrep: Closing the Feature Engineering Gap in Tabular Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.67	Provable Data Scaling Law for Meta Learning via Complexity Minimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	CultureForest: Understanding and Evaluating Cultural Norm Grounded Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	On the Generalization Gap in Self-Evolving Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will US headline CPI for May 2026 come in at 3.9% or higher year-over-year?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.67	FDA BLA761069: IMFINZI (DURVALUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA UK LTD	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Towards the Readability of LLM-Generated Codes through Multitask Representation Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	A Pre-Registered Causal Partition of Self-Consistency Elicitation and Reward Design in RLVR	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	LadderMan: Learning Humanoid Perceptive Ladder Climbing	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Mechanistic Insights into Functional Sparsity in Multimodal LLMs via CoRe Heads	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	When Tools Fail: Benchmarking Dynamic Replanning and Anomaly Recovery in LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Let It Be Simple: One-Step Action Generation for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Cognitive Threat Intelligence and Explainable Federated Security Analytics for distributed Infrastructure Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	AdaMEM: Test-Time Adaptive Memory for Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Safety Paradox: How Enhanced Safety Awareness Leaves LLMs Vulnerable to Posterior Attack	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.67	On the training of physics-informed neural operators for solving parametric partial differential equations	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Adaptive state-action abstractions via rate-distortion	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Automated Proving of Shannon-Type Entropy Inequalities via Fine-Tuned Language Models and Guided Tree Search	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	LeanMarathon: Toward Reliable AI Co-Mathematicians through Long-Horizon Lean Autoformalization	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	Gradient descent at the Edge of Stability: free energy model and kinetic description of the two-layer network	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Human Adults and LLMs as Scientists: Who Benefits from Active Exploration?	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Analysis of the Neglect-Zero Effect in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Fast & Faithful Function Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	R-APS: Compositional Reasoning and In-Context Meta-Learning for Constrained Design via Reflective Adversarial Pareto Search	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	When Freshness Is Not Enough: Distribution-Aware Age of Information for Networked LQR Control	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	OLIVE: Online Low-Rank Incremental Learning for Efficient Adaptive Exoskeletons	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Whisper Hallucination Detection and Mitigation via Hidden Representation Steering and Sparse AutoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.67	Re-imagining ISO 26262 in the Age of Autonomous Vehicles: Enhancing Controllability through Transferability and Predictability	arxiv 2026-06-05	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.67	Re-imagining ISO 26262 in the Age of Autonomous Vehicles: Enhancing Controllability through Transferability and Predictability	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.67	Beyond Waypoints: A Trajectory-Centric Waypointing Paradigm for Vision-Language Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	ThinkBooster: A Unified Framework for Seamless Test-Time Scaling of LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.67	Evidence-Based Intelligent Diagnostic and Therapeutic Visualization System with Large Language Models: Multi-Turn Interaction and Multimodal Treatment Plan Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.67	Beyond Linear and Overcomplete Regimes: A Mean-Field Analysis of Bottleneck Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-08-07	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will I get a GF in the year of 2026(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.67	Will warfare robots kill multitudes in a city?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-25	239_020 AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do Elon Musk	AI	23%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.67	micron technology growth exploding why 135145048.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.67		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.67	blame game between ai moguls	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	18%
0.67		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.67	gorilla technology yotta expand india ai infrastructure collaboration in project valued at approximately us2 8 billion	gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_018 Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adopters of AI infrastructure are already seeing cash-flow-margin expansions at roughly twice the global average. Morgan Stanley	Energy	49%
0.67	intelligence trust the equation that will decide australias ai winners 625399	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.67	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-14	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.67	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-24	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will I make IMO in 2028(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	FDA ANDA219257: ANDA219257 ((unspecified)) — RENATA LIMITED	fda 2026-04-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA NDA219293: DANZITEN (NILOTINIB TARTRATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-04-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	FDA NDA204026: POMALYST (POMALIDOMIDE) — BRISTOL	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.98.0	github_release 2026-05-04	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.95.0	github_release 2026-04-14	246_047 Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. Peter Diamandis	AI	76%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.90.0	github_release 2026-04-07	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.83.0	github_release 2026-02-19	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.82.0	github_release 2026-02-18	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.78.0	github_release 2026-02-05	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Tailored Prompts, Targeted Protection: Vulnerability-Specific LLM Analysis for Smart Contracts	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.67	Erase Persona, Forget Lore: Benchmarking Multimodal Copyright Unlearning in Large Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	VLMaxxing through FrameMogging Training-Free Anti-Recomputation for Video Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Stop Automating Peer Review Without Rigorous Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.67	Are you with me? A Framework for Detecting Mental Model Discrepancies in Task-Based Team Dialogues	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Making the Invisible Visible: Understanding the Mismatch Between Organizational Goals and Worker Experiences in AI Adoption	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_063 Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	38%
0.67	From Sensors to Insight: Rapid, Edge-to-Core Application Development for Sensor-Driven Applications	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	(POSTER) From Sensors to Insight: Rapid, Edge-to-Core Application Development for Sensor-Driven Applications	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.67	ProPACT: A Proactive AI-Driven Adaptive Collaborative Tutor for Pair Programming	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Most ReLU Networks Admit Identifiable Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Rethinking Reasoning-Intensive Retrieval: Evaluating and Advancing Retrievers in Agentic Search Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Tibetan-TTS:Low-Resource Tibetan Speech Synthesis with Large Model Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Robotic Affection -- Opportunities of AI-based haptic interactions to improve social robotic touch through a multi-deep-learning approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.67	Sim-to-Real Transfer and Robustness Evaluation of Reinforcement Learning Control with Integrated Perception on an ASV for Floating Waste Capture	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Why Geometric Continuity Emerges in Deep Neural Networks: Residual Connections and Rotational Symmetry Breaking	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	GEM: Graph-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts with ReAct Agents for Dialogue State Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30	github_release 2025-04-28	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.67	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post4	github_release 2023-10-13	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Superintelligent Retrieval Agent: The Next Frontier of Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	From Agent Loops to Deterministic Graphs: Execution Lineage for Reproducible AI-Native Work	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Prediction and Empowerment: A Theory of Agency through Bridge Interfaces	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Unifying Goal-Conditioned RL and Unsupervised Skill Learning via Control-Maximization	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Novelty-based Tree-of-Thought Search for LLM Reasoning and Planning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Does Synthetic Data Help? Empirical Evidence from Deep Learning Time Series Forecasters	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.67	Strat-LLM: Stratified Strategy Alignment for LLM-based Stock Trading with Real-time Multi-Source Signals	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	ReActor: Reinforcement Learning for Physics-Aware Motion Retargeting	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.67	Architecture Shape Governs QNN Trainability: Jacobian Null Space Growth and Parameter Efficiency	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	Career-Aware Resume Tailoring via Multi-Source Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Provenance Tracking: A Case Study	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	CRAFT: Counterfactual-to-Interactive Reinforcement Fine-Tuning for Driving Policies	arxiv 2026-05-06	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.101.0	github_release 2026-05-11	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.67	Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? (market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.67	Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? (market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Who will be the Indonesia National Mathematical Olympiad 2026 absolute winner?	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Pion: A Spectrum-Preserving Optimizer via Orthogonal Equivalence Transformation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Beyond GRPO and On-Policy Distillation: An Empirical Sparse-to-Dense Reward Principle for Language-Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Predicting Decisions of AI Agents from Limited Interaction through Text-Tabular Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Rethink the Role of Neural Decoders in Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.102.0	github_release 2026-05-13	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Reward-Weighted On-Policy Distillation with an Open Property-Equivalence Verifier for NL-to-SVA Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Unified generalization analysis for physics informed neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	N-vium: Mixture-of-Exits Transformer for Accelerated Exact Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	On Hallucinations in Inverse Problems: Fundamental Limits and Provable Assessment Methods	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Not Just RLHF: Why Alignment Alone Won't Fix Multi-Agent Sycophancy	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Fast Adversarial Attacks with Gradient Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.67	DRL-STAF: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for State-Aware Forecasting of Complex Multivariate Hidden Markov Processes	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	ROAD: Adaptive Data Mixing for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning via Bi-Level Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.67	LLMs Know When They Know, but Do Not Act on It: A Metacognitive Harness for Test-time Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	GPT 5.6 release date?	manifold 2026-05-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.67	Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13](market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-15	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 2000+ tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will a humanoid robot walk on the mars before a human does?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-18	229_029 Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. Brett Adcock	Robotics	33%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Text2CAD-Bench: A Benchmark for LLM-based Text-to-Parametric CAD Generation	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Beyond Inference-Time Search: Reinforcement Learning Synthesizes Reusable Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	The Expressive Power of Low Precision Softmax Transformers with (Summarized) Chain-of-Thought	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.67	Transfer Learning for Customized Car Racing Environments	arxiv 2026-05-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.103.0	github_release 2026-05-19	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	On Language Generation in the Limit with Bounded Memory	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Dissociative Identity: Language Model Agents Lack Grounding for Reputation Mechanisms	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.67	Overcoming Forgetting in LLM Fine-Tuning with Evolution Strategies	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Enhancing Multi-Agent Communication through Attention Steering with Context Relevance	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	SAAS: Self-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Over-Search Mitigation in Agentic Search	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	LLM-Evolved Domain-Independent Heuristics for Symbolic AI Planning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	DeepTool: Scaling Interleaved Deliberation in Tool-Integrated Reasoning via Process-Supervised Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MINDGAMES: A Live Arena for Evaluating Social and Strategic Reasoning in Multi-Agent LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Convergence Theory for Iterative LLM-Based Neural Architecture Search: A Parametric Cross-Entropy Framework with Closed-Form Proxy Reliability	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Realistic honeypot evaluations for scheming propensity	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.67	The Complexity of Verifying Feedforward Neural Networks in Quantised Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	DenseSteer: Steering Small Language Models towards Dense Math Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	UniSteer: Text-Guided Flow Matching in Activation Space for Versatile LLM Steering	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Spurious Prompts: Can Irrelevant Prompts Steer Large Language Models?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MOOSE-Copilot: A Web-Based Interactive Assistant for Unified Exploratory and Fine-Grained Scientific Hypothesis Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Adaptive Interviewing for Persona Simulation in LLMs: Evidence-Grounded Reasoning Improves Decision Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Revisiting Observation Reduction for Web Agents: Comprehensive Evaluation with a Lightweight Framework	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.2	github_release 2026-05-29	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.67	Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-31	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	3rd largest company end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	59%
0.67	2nd largest company end of July 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.67	What Happens First: James Bond actor officially announced or Elon Musk a trillionaire?	manifold 2026-06-01	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.67	Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.67	Permissive Safety Through Trusted Inference: Verifiable Belief-Space Neural Safety Filters for Assured Interactive Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Iteris: Agentic Research Loops for Computational Mathematics	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	AGENTCL: Toward Rigorous Evaluation of Continual Learning in Language Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.67	HLL: Can Agents Cross Humanity's Last Line of Verification?	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.67	MOC: Multi-Order Communication in LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	SIRI: Self-Internalizing Reinforcement Learning with Intrinsic Skills for LLM Agent Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	S3TS: Stochastic Scenario-Structured Tree Search for Advanced Planning Under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	WorldCoder-Bench: Benchmarking Physically Grounded 3D World Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.67	Adaptive Auto-Harness: Sustained Self-Improvement for Agentic System Deployment on Open-Ended Task Streams	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.67	Easier to Mislead Than to Correct: Harmful and Beneficial Revision in LLM Conformity	arxiv 2026-06-01	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.67	Move the Query, Not the Cache: Characterizing Cross-Instance Latent Attention Redistribution Across GPU Fabrics	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.67	LLM Consortium for Software Design Refinement: A Controlled Experiment on Multi-Agent Collaboration Topologies	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	Don't Let a Few Network Failures Slow the Entire AllReduce	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.67	MPMWorlds: Material-Point-Method Simulations for Inferring and Extrapolating Physical Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Training Prompt Matters: State-Adaptive Optimization for Robust Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	RoboTrustBench: Benchmarking the Trustworthiness of Video World Models for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-01	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.67	Don't Ask the LLM to Track Freshness: A Deterministic Recipe for Memory Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	63%
0.67	BenchEvolver: Frontier Task Synthesis via Solution-Centric Evolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MiCU: End-to-End Smart Home Command Understanding with Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	On the Generalization Gap in Self-Evolving Language Model Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-31	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	MENTIS: What Belief Changes Under Alignment? Measuring Multi-Scale Latent Torsion in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.67	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.67	Best METR 80% Time Horizon in 2026	manifold 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	PC Layer: Polynomial Weight Preconditioning for Improving LLM Pre-Training	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Benchmark Everything Everywhere All at Once	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.67	AIS-Based Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using Memory-Augmented Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	Framing, Judging, Steering: An Assessable Competency Model for Teach-ing Students to Reason With Generative AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.67	Learning of Robot Safety Policies via Adversarial Synthetic Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.67	When Surface Form Changes Moderation Decisions: A Paired Study of Code-Mixed Workflow Instability	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.67	Attack Detection using Time Series Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.67	Merging model-based control with multi-agent reinforcement learning for multi-agent cooperative teaming strategies	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	CLaaS: Continual learning as a service for sample efficient online learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.67	Can We Predict The Human Preference For Text-to-Image Content Prior To Generation And Is It Even Useful To Do So?	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.67	LeanMarathon: Toward Reliable AI Co-Mathematicians through Long-Horizon Lean Autoformalization	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	A prism hierarchy of learning regimes in large linear autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	A prism hierarchy of learning regimes in large linear autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-03	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.67	Scaffold, Not Vocabulary? A Controlled, Two-Tier, Pre-Registered Study of a Popperian Code-Generation Skill	arxiv 2026-06-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	AdaPlanBench: Evaluating Adaptive Planning in Large Language Model Agents under World and User Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Arithmetic Pedagogy for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.67	Arithmetic Pedagogy for Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	MusaCoder: Native GPU Kernel Generation with Full-Stack Training on Moore Threads GPU	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.67	Benchmarking Living-Screen-Native GUI Agents on Short-Video Platforms	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	VOLT: Vision and Language Trajectory Segmentation for Faster-than-Demonstration Policies	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Amortized Nonlinear Model Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	Dynamic Multi-Agent Pickup and Delivery in Robotic Cellular Warehousing Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_001 The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... Alex Finn	AI	51%
0.67	Flash-WAM: Modality-Aware Distillation for World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	FDA ANDA220137: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.67	Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Largest company end of 2028?	manifold 2026-06-07	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.67	Whisper Hallucination Detection and Mitigation via Hidden Representation Steering and Sparse AutoEncoders	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.67	The Fine-Tuning Trap: Evaluating Negative Transfer and the Role of PEFT in Sub-1B Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.67	PandaAI: A Practical Agent CQ2 for Neuro-symbolic Data Analysis And Integrated Decision-Making in Quantitative Finance	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.67	Bootstrap Theory of Representational Emergence: Explanatory Insufficiency as a Driver of Representation Learning and World Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.67	Geodesics of Dynamic Graphs for Regime Change Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.67	QuadVerse: An Integrated Framework Aligning Visual-Physical Reality for Quadruped Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.67	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.67	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.67	FDA ANDA220724: ANDA220724 ((unspecified)) — ZYDUS PHARMACEUTICALS (USA) INC.	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Tesla reaches $400 before $300?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-04-25	243_043 Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.66	Will the US unemployment rate be >=6.4% in April 2028?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-04-23	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.66	ai fears surging crude oil 151510490.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	248_012 AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.66		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.66	microsoft profits jump cloud ai 013826928.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.66		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.66	meta earnings layoffs ai efficiency infrastructure push 2026 4	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-04-29	234_006 Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	46%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Which prediction market CEOs will I meet before 2028?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis	Robotics	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SPC_008 SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim... New Market Pitch	Space	70%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.66	Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.66	Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.66	openai/openai-python v2.9.0	github_release 2025-12-04	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.79.0	github_release 2026-02-07	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.66	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.79.0	github_release 2026-02-07	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.66	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0	github_release 2024-10-24	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.66	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 6?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.66	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.66	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.66	If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-05-06	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.66	Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.66	OpenSeeker-v2: Pushing the Limits of Search Agents with Informative and High-Difficulty Trajectories	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.66	Magic-Informed Quantum Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.66	Magic-Informed Quantum Architecture Search	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%