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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.71	VibeServe: Can AI Agents Build Bespoke LLM Serving Systems?	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.71	Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	The Diffusion Encoder	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Embodied Neurocomputation: A Framework for Interfacing Biological Neural Cultures with Scaled Task-Driven Validation	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.71	The Efficiency Gap in Byte Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.71	How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-05-15	229_023 First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.71	Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-15	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 21?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	How many successful SpaceX launches in June 2026 UTC	manifold 2026-05-18	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.71	Temporal Stability and Few-Shot Prompting in Math Task Assessment	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.71	Q-ANCHOR: Federated Quantum Learning with ZNE-guided Correction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.71	ElegantVLA: Learning When to Think for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.104.0	github_release 2026-05-21	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.71	Emergent Language as an Approach to Conscious AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Towards Healthy Evolution: Exploring the Role and Mechanisms of Human-Agent Interaction in Self-Evolving Systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Framing, Judging, Steering: An Assessable Competency Model for Teach-ing Students to Reason With Generative AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.71	GenAutoML: An Agentic Framework for Dynamic Architecture Generation and Optimization in Time-Series Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Accelerating and Scaling MPC-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Humanoid Locomotion and Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Bitcoin above .... on June 8,2026 ?	manifold 2026-06-07	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.71	An Abstract Architecture for Explainable Autonomy in Hazardous Environments	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	The Three-Ring Architecture: Governing Agents in the Era of On-Platform Organisations	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.71	LIMMT: Less is More for Motion Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	openai revenue miss ripples p 132038121.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_006 OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. Sam Altman	AI/Finance	64%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 1?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.71	Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]	manifold 2026-04-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.97.0	github_release 2026-04-23	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.71	Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.71	A Workflow-Oriented Framework for Asynchronous Human-AI Collaboration in Hybrid and Compute-Intensive HPC Environments	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Enhancing RL Generalizability in Robotics through SHAP Analysis of Algorithms and Hyperparameters	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.71	AIs and Humans with Agency	arxiv 2026-05-04	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.71	The Compliance Trap: How Structural Constraints Degrade Frontier AI Metacognition Under Adversarial Pressure	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.71	MolmoAct2: Action Reasoning Models for Real-world Deployment	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	RLearner-LLM: Balancing Logical Grounding and Fluency in Large Language Models via Hybrid Direct Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.71	Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	Multi-Stream LLMs: Unblocking Language Models with Parallel Streams of Thoughts, Inputs and Outputs	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.71	The Expressivity Boundary of Probabilistic Circuits: A Comparison with Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.71	ASH: Agents that Self-Hone via Embodied Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.71	ESI-Bench: Towards Embodied Spatial Intelligence that Closes the Perception-Action Loop	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Unlocking the Working Memory of Large Language Models for Latent Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Locally Coherent, Globally Incoherent: Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	MOC: Multi-Order Communication in LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	MLLM-Microscope: Unlocking Hidden Structure Within Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Benchmark Everything Everywhere All at Once	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Risk Assessment of Autonomous Driving: Integrating Technical Failures, Ethical Dilemmas, and Policy Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-04	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.71	Emergent Language as an Approach to Conscious AI	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.71	Human Oversight and Overload: Two Hidden and Costly Burdens of AI-Assisted Software Engineering	arxiv 2026-06-04	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.71	SubtleMemory: A Benchmark for Fine-Grained Relational Memory Discrimination in Long-Horizon AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.71	The End of Software Engineering: How AI Agents Are Fundamentally Restructuring the Software Paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.71	Predictable Scaling Laws of Optimal Hyperparameters for LLM Continued Pre-training	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_027 Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum... Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.71	The Sim-to-Real Gap of Foundation Model Agents: A Unified MDP Perspective	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.71	The Fine-Tuning Trap: Evaluating Negative Transfer and the Role of PEFT in Sub-1B Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	ThinkBooster: A Unified Framework for Seamless Test-Time Scaling of LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.71	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.71	New gemini version out in june(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-08	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.70	on the risks of ai in the workplace.htm	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Which sector will see the highest % of jobs displaced by AI in the US by end of Dec 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.70	Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1?	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.70	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Humans have consciousness [Convince the Machine #3](market prob: 98%)	manifold 2026-05-03	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.70	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.70	Say the Mission, Execute the Swarm: Agent-Enhanced LLM Reasoning in the Web-of-Drones	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	U-Define: Designing User Workflows for Hard and Soft Constraints in LLM-Based Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	AI-Generated Smells: An Analysis of Code and Architecture in LLM and Agent-Driven Development	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Caliper-in-the-Loop: Black-Box Optimization for Hyperledger Fabric Performance Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.70	LLM-Driven Design Space Exploration of FPGA-based Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Decomposing the Basic Abilities of Large Language Models: Mitigating Cross-Task Interference in Multi-Task Instruct-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.70	Dream-MPC: Gradient-Based Model Predictive Control with Latent Imagination	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.70	Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-11	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.70	FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agents	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.70	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.70	ESI-Bench: Towards Embodied Spatial Intelligence that Closes the Perception-Action Loop	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.70	Will the bitcoin reach ... in 2026 (after market creation on the 25th of May 2026) [ADD ANSWERS] [CRYPTO => USDOLLARS]	manifold 2026-05-25	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.70	Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.70	at the end of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality tv ep to a prompt?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.70	Adaptive Auto-Harness: Sustained Self-Improvement for Agentic System Deployment on Open-Ended Task Streams	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%