Predictions
209 of 1,622 predictions match — page 4 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 237_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 237_023 | AI | AGI | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_026 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via en… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_027 | AI | $100T | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 248_007 | AI | AI-timing | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_002 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to exce… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 232_037 | Space | AI-timing | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2032-10-31 |
| 235_020 | Robotics | humanoids | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 235_024 | Energy | abundance | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_043 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human wh… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 242_038 | Space | SpaceX | Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 242_051 | Space | orbital-AI | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 248_002 | Space | AI-timing | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial network… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 230_008 | AI | AI-timing | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and materi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_032 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_051 | Markets/Stocks | humanoids | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_007 | AI | AI-timing | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_017 | AI | AI-scaling | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_049 | Crypto | crypto | If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_011 | AI | AI-timing | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for hi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_016 | AI | AI-timing | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inven… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_056 | AI | AI-timing | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattene… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_058 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 236_039 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_021 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_043 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_056 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_036 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, target… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 230_035 | Macro/Economy | economy | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2033-12-31 |
| 246_020 | Geopolitics | orbital-AI | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 247_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_007 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment a… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_023 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_039 | Education | AI-timing | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; e… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_043 | Crypto | crypto | The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobst… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_045 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_032 | Space | orbital-AI | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_040 | Macro/Economy | economy | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 235_045 | Consumer | AI-timing | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 235_018 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 242_047 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 246_041 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 246_042 | AI | AI-timing | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans livi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31 |
| 232_059 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| 230_038 | AI | AI-timing | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution eff… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 232_039 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 232_048 | Space | AI-timing | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2034-06-01 – 2034-06-30 |
| IND_024 | Macro/Economy | Solve-Everything-2035-abundance | Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physica… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| 232_038 | Space | $100T | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2035-06-01 – 2035-06-30 |