Predictions
153 of 1,622 predictions match — page 3 of 4. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247_060 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 248_006 | AI | AI-scaling | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 248_017 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commo… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| INF_028 | Labor/Jobs | white-collar-automation | AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | C | 15.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 230_012 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivit… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 234_010 | Defense | AI-scaling | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_025 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_034 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_044 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_047 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back a… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_024 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_025 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 230_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withhe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 230_017 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then il… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 238_051 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenu… | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-05-31 |
| 247_052 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 248_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_016 | AI | AI-scaling | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of y… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 248_033 | AI | AI-scaling | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 230_010 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 230_019 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the ne… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_020 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (pe… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_023 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and survei… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_024 | AI | AI-scaling | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in th… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_028 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't k… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_029 | Other | AI-scaling | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_050 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than thr… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_004 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productiv… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_007 | Media/Ads | AI-scaling | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languag… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 232_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for build… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 235_013 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to ev… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 247_051 | Energy | AI-scaling | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 234_013 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-05-31 |
| 235_001 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 235_026 | Media/Ads | AI-scaling | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 242_016 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 246_043 | Space | AI-scaling | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| 247_018 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next e… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2029-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 235_041 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Dave Blundin | 2/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2029-06-01 – 2029-06-30 |
| 242_033 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| 247_020 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 230_013 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_037 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_047 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of t… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 230_049 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust tr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_022 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30 |
| 231_038 | AI | AI-scaling | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-01-01 – 2033-08-31 |
| 232_057 | Robotics | AI-scaling | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; rob… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2031-06-01 – 2031-06-30 |
| 231_052 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe for… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2033-06-01 – 2033-06-30 |
| 242_023 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2034-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |