Predictions
209 of 1,622 predictions match — page 3 of 5. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231_025 | AI | AI-scaling | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_025 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_027 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in seco… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_050 | AI | AI-timing | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnera… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 234_051 | Consumer | AI-scaling | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_010 | AI | AI-scaling | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to ex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_031 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 235_035 | AI | AI-timing | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 237_030 | AI | AI-scaling | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical pa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 238_040 | AI | AI-scaling | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 fo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_015 | AI | AI-timing | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like chi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_031 | AI | AI-timing | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_051 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_058 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 246_048 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_011 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_012 | AI | AI-timing | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_019 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_014 | AI | AI-timing | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_018 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_022 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_024 | Other | AI-timing | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_025 | Other | AI-timing | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while prolife… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_029 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_032 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_036 | AI | AI-timing | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_037 | AI | orbital-AI | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute i… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_044 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_047 | Markets/Stocks | AGI | Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic e… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_048 | AI | AI-scaling | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_049 | AI | AI-timing | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligen… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_050 | AI | AI-scaling | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 240_045 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (r… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31 |
| 238_005 | AI | AI-timing | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-09-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 234_003 | AI | AI-timing | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized wh… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 234_037 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 238_033 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 238_070 | AI | AI-scaling | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_012 | AI | AI-timing | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_007 | AI | OpenAI-compute-dominance | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 230_003 | AI | AI-scaling | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely re… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_003 | AI | AI-scaling | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_004 | AI | AI-timing | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, an… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 231_013 | AI | AI-timing | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 232_044 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitor… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_015 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_037 | AI | AI-scaling | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |