Predictions
1,622 of 1,622 predictions match — page 11 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND_021 | Labor/Jobs | Block-4000-layoffs-realized | February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated seve… | Jack Dorsey | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-02-01 – 2026-02-28 |
| 231_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, … | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 35.0% | miss | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 231_018 | AI | AI-scaling | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 35.0% | miss | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 235_038 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosc… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31 |
| 235_016 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 2/5 | C | 55.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 242_057 | Space | AI-timing | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 247_042 | Robotics | humanoids | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 247_058 | AI | AI-scaling | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| COD_ROB_001 | Robotics | humanoid-production | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at lea… | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-29 – 2026-12-31 |
| 229_005 | Robotics | humanoids | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 p… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_011 | Markets/Stocks | economy | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly hal… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_012 | Robotics | humanoids | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_014 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expan… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_016 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundre… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_017 | Robotics | humanoids | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_018 | Robotics | humanoids | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_019 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_024 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,0… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_028 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_029 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_031 | Robotics | humanoids | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_035 | Space | humanoids | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of spac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_036 | Space | AI-scaling | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_039 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into f… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_040 | Robotics | AI-scaling | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millim… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_041 | Other | humanoids | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 20… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_042 | AI | AI-scaling | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, ac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_044 | AI | humanoids | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_045 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoi… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_046 | Robotics | humanoids | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-09-30 |
| 234_001 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 234_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_007 | AI | AI-timing | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | Kevin Weil | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_008 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 234_009 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 234_011 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-12-31 |
| 234_016 | AI | $100T | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_022 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 234_023 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 234_024 | Labor/Jobs | AGI | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a re… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 234_028 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Lab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_030 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_031 | Auto/Transport | AI-scaling | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_032 | Robotics | humanoids | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_038 | Real Estate | AI-timing | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 234_039 | Real Estate | AI-scaling | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 234_040 | Real Estate | SpaceX | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_042 | Macro/Economy | jobs | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Se… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |